1. Stair climb - candidates are required to wear additional weight (two 12.5-pound weights on the shoulders) and to walk on a StepMill, which is situated between a wall and an elevated platform, at a stepping rate of 60 steps per minute for three minutes. The handrail of the StepMill opposite the wall is removed. Prior to beginning the timed event, each candidate performs a 20-second warm-up at a rate of 50 steps per minute. There is no break between this warm-up period and the actual timed test event. If the candidate falls or dismounts the StepMill three times during the warm-up period, he or she fails the test. If the candidate falls, grasps any of the test equipment, or steps off the StepMill during the timed event, the test is concluded and the candidate fails the test.
2. Hose Drag - the candidate grasps a six-pound nozzle attached to four lengths (200 feet) of attack hose (1 1/2 inch diameter), places the hose over the shoulder and across the chest (maximum 8 feet), and drags the hose 75 feet along a marked path (cones) to two pre-positioned 55-gallon drums that are secured together and weighted. The candidate makes a 90-degree turn around the drums, continues an additional 25 feet, and then drops to at least one knee at the finish line.
3. Equipment Carry - the candidate removes two 32-pound saws from a tool cabinet, one at a time, and places them on the ground. The candidate then picks up both saws, one in each hand, and carries them 75 feet around a drum and then back to the starting point. The candidate then places the saws on the ground, picks up each saw one at a time, and replaces them in the designated space inside the cabinet.
4. Ladder Raise and Extension - This event uses two portable 24-foot aluminum extension ladders, one ladder is lying on the ground and hinged at one end to a wall and the other ladder is secured in a vertical position. During the event, the candidate lifts the ladder on the ground by the unhinged end and walks underneath the ladder while raising it to a stationary position against a wall. The candidate then proceeds to the other ladder and stands in front of it with both feet inside a marked-off area and extends the fly section of the ladder hand-over-hand until it hits the stop.
5. Forcible Entry - the candidate uses a 10-pound sledgehammer to strike a forcible entry machine calibrated to measure the cumulative force of 300 pounds of pressure based on the effort required to force open a door. The candidate's feet must remain outside a toe box assembly. The forcible entry machine is mounted 39 inches on center from the ground (typical location of a standard exterior door knob).
6. Search - the candidate crawls on hands and knees through a dark tunnel maze that is approximately 3 feet high, 4 feet wide, and 64 feet long, with two 90-degree turns. At various locations in the tunnel, the candidate must maneuver around, over, and under obstacles. At two additional locations, the candidate is required to crawl through a narrowed space where the dimensions of the tunnel are reduced.
7. Rescue - he candidate grasps a 165-pound mannequin (the minimum weight a firefighter must be able to drag to meet the physical demands of the job) by one or both of the harness shoulder handles (simulating the shoulder straps of a firefighter's SCBA) and drags it 35 feet to a pre-positioned drum. The candidate then makes a 180-degree turn around the drum and continues to drag the mannequin an additional 35 feet totally across the finish line.
8. Ceiling Breach - the candidate removes a pike pole from a bracket and stands within an area inside the framework of the equipment. The candidate places the tip of the pike pole on the target area (a ceiling assembly eight feet above the ground containing a hinged door and handle) and pushes up (breaching action) on the hinged door with the pike pole three times. The candidate then hooks the pike pole onto the handle of the ceiling assembly and pulls downward five times. The candidate repeats the set (three pushes and five pulls) four times. The standard ceiling height of a residential structure is eight feet. The force required to breach the ceiling is 60 pounds and the force required to pull the ceiling is 80 pounds. Three breaches followed by five pulls will provide a four-foot by eight-foot examination opening within a structure.

Imagine, if you will, your sales and marketing team making broad claims of success for your organization - gaining significant market share, increasing sales volume, what have you.  However, at the end of the year, not only were they wrong, the were widely off the mark.  

What do you do?  Fire them?  Pat them on the back and say better luck next time?  What is their responsibility for their inaccurate claims?  Do they remain credible?

With that in mind, its been interesting to see the fallout from the 2012 election of a similar group of claim makers - the political pundit.  Think about it - their one job during an election year is to analyze the race.  They have the inside connections, the ear to the ground, the background that should be able to make more accurate predictions than simply throwing a dart at a dartboard.

On the one hand, you have Nate Silver, whose fivethirtyeight.com blog at the New York Times. Using statistical analyses and poll averaging on a daily basis, he laid out the likelihood of the outcome of the Presidential outcome as well as who would win the electoral votes in each state.  He was pilloried, particularly in the last few weeks of the race.  Joe Scarborough, on the Morning Joe show on MSNBC, took particular offense, stating on October 29, “Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue, they should be kept away from typewriters, computers, laptops and microphones for the next 10 days, because they’re jokes.”

Mr. Silver was more than willing to back up his claims, offering Mr. Scarborough a bet on Twitter of $1000 on the outcome of the race.  

On the other hand, take Peggy Noonan, for example.  In her Wall Street Journal blog on November 5, she wrote:

Who knows what to make of the weighting of the polls and the assumptions as to who will vote? Who knows the depth and breadth of each party’s turnout efforts? Among the wisest words spoken this cycle were by John Dickerson of CBS News and Slate, who said, in a conversation the night before the last presidential debate, that he thought maybe the American people were quietly cooking something up, something we don’t know about.

I think they are and I think it’s this: a Romney win.....All the vibrations are right.....