One of my favorite terms in HR is "base rate of success."  Its also rarely discussed, but absolutely critical.

Simply put, the "base rate of success" tells us the proportion of employees who would be successful on the job if we hired randomly instead of applying some predictor.

As Gatewood and Feild (2010) write in their book "Human Resource Selection:"

If 100 percent of the applicants would be successful if hired, there is no added information provided by the predictor; one would simply randomly pick from the pool of superstar candidates.  Conversely, if every applicant in the selection pool would fail if hired, the predictor cannot help identify even one applicant who would be successful; none are successful.

We invest considerable time in our selection tools.  We apply certain assessment tests believing they provide added information that would help differentiate amongst qualified candidates.  We spend countless hours interviewing the "best" applicants hoping it will give they final impetus on who to choose.

How much better are these predictors than simply throwing darts or picking out of a hat?  Have you looked at your measures to see if they are providing you that edge?  How much would your company pay improved your ability to select by 3%? 5%? 10%?

Last Friday, I discussed my battles with absenteeism in the classroom.  Not only do students suffer in their performance by missing class, but it creates more work for me in terms of time grading poor answers on exams.

Where absenteeism poses a particular problem beyond just missing class is when assignments are due or exams are scheduled.  Students may have legitimate reasons for being absent; as a result, my policy takes into account three situations:

Situations arise during the course of the semester that will cause me to revisit the policy and make changes.  Take this sterling example:

• A student commutes to class from his/her off-campus home.  On the day an exam is scheduled, he/she e-mails me that his/her car has broken down and he/she will not be able to make it to class.  Per the policy, I required a note from an appropriate party - in this case, the auto repair shop.  The student provides the note, and I notice the home address of the student on the receipt.  It turns out the student's "commute" was less than a mile from a campus, and he/she could have easily walked to class.

As a result, I may have to consider adding a sentence or two about commuting to campus, including a commuting range, for the next semester.

As always, the policy is a dynamic, not static, instrument, and students will find inventive ways to find loopholes.  Sigh!

Like most managers, I engage in a semester-long battle with absenteeism.  I have the enviable position of teaching two sections of business statistics.  Combine that with a time slot of 8:00 A.M. and/or 9:00 A.M., and you can envision the long waiting list of students at registration.

Students are over 18 and they're paying for the class, so why should I care whether or not they attend?

1) After 18 years of teaching, and thousands of data points collected, a clear picture emerges - attendance and doing one's homework matters.   After every exam, I can see a clear correlation between amount of points earned on a chapter problem set and the subsequent exam score.  At the end of the semester, I can see a clear correlation between points earned and a student's final grade.  Similarly, attendance is a predictor of success in the class.  

Over the past several semesters for a class that meets 4 times a week, 50 minutes a day, for 15 weeks:

Shocking, I know.
 
2) Students often think professors revel in student's poor performance; that we want to force rank students into something resembling a normal curve.  Here's the secret....we really don't.  I'd much rather see success on exams than failure.  As most managers know, giving quality feedback takes time.  It is much, much easier to grade an exam where a student gets an answer correct, than when he or she has made a number of mistakes.  A student's absence, more likely than not, means less success on an exam, and subsequently more work for me.

So, my attendance policy is a continual work in progress:



I think that it provides significant flexibility (though students might think differently). Stuff happens during a semester - illness, job interviews, travel, car breaks down, a competing college-related event.  Four absences (essentially a week of classes) should be sufficient to meet most circumstances that a student might face over the course of a semester.  Similarly, the exponential penalties are significant enough to discourage more absences than that.

Yet, there are always new excuses and challenges that cause me to revise it yet again....but you'll have to wait until Monday to read about it.

So, have at it, people.  What flaws do you see?

So, my wife and I are expecting twins in the next couple of months.  Anxious times.

Of the hundreds of decisions that we are making, one is the choice of the pediatrician taking care of our children.  Choosing one shouldn't be any different than choosing an employee, right?  All, I assume, meet the basic qualifications of the position - knowledge, education, abilities, etc, or they wouldn't be already hired and hanging out their shingle.  So, it comes down to word-of-mouth referrals, and the interview.

We are going through a series of "meet and greets" to find the "right" one, much like a manager would interview a potential applicant.   We went through our first one yesterday.  Questions were posed, such as:

"How many years have you been at this clinic?"
"How many children have you served?"
"What's your perspective on medicating kids with behavioral problems?"
"Have you rejected any patients?"
"Have any patients rejected you?"
"At what age do you stop seeing the patient?"

For the most part, I tend to take a distant view of my health care employees.  They have the proper certification, education, knowledge, skills, and abilities, and are still employed.  In terms of cost, if they are in network, what's the difference?  One doctor is as good as the next.  So, the interview process really is a search for some piece of negative information that would turn us away.  For my wife, it does come down to "fit;" does the pediatrician make her feel "comfortable," and does he/she come across as a "know-it-all."

So, parents in the know....what am I missing?

That's right, ladies and gentlemen.  The 8 Man Rotation e-book is back for another year....and its our biggest edition ever!!!

You admired the inaugural season covering the year in sports and HR for 2010.  You loved the 2nd season covering 2011.

Now, be in awe of the 3rd edition of the best sports and HR writing from the minds of Steve Boese, Kris Dunn, Lance Haun, Tim Sackett, and myself.

Over 60 posts!!!

Over 150 pages!!!

With gracious forewords from China Gorman and Dwane Lay.

And, a special thanks to Lizzie Maldonado for putting together the 8 Man Rotation logo seen above.

So, what are you waiting for?!?!?  Check out the 2012 Season of the 8 Man Rotation here.

Take the rest of the day off....you're going to need it.

At 3:00 P.M./2:00 P.M. Central, I'll be the featured Twitterati on #nextchat focusing on the transition into a career in HR.  The questions will be:

Q1. If you are currently practicing HR, would you encourage others to join the HR profession? Why?
Q2. Is a specific HR degree or certification necessary to get into HR? Does it depend on the specialty? Why?
Q3. What professions (Legal, Sales, PR, Marketing?) can most easily transition into HR and why?
Q4. What is the biggest obstacle to breaking into a career in HR and what are ways to get around it?
Q5. How can you get experience in HR when you can’t get a job in HR until you have experience?
Q6. Can building a personal brand on social media help someone more quickly break into the HR field? How?
Q7. Can attending a popular HR conference like SHRM Annual help you transition into a career in HR? How?

More details can be found here

Please join and share your thoughts.

There were lots of mediocre ads during the Super Bowl.

However, the ad of the night, for me, was the Dodge Ram Farmer ad, featuring some brilliant still photography, and the iconic voice of Paul Harvey.  Check it out below:

 

I anticipate that SHRM is rapidly working on a "So God Made A HR Professional" ad, perhaps in time for the Annual Conference in June.

So, if you were SHRM...

What should the ad say?

Who should do the voice over?